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Started 2026-11-12

When will the Knesset elect a Speaker?

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The Nov 17 vote

Ohana has set the vote for Nov 17. Either it is held or it is not; if it is held, either someone is elected or no one is.

The forecast

Chance a Speaker has been elected by the end of each day. A Speaker can only be elected at a plenum sitting, and the plenum sits Monday to Wednesday,9 so the chance rises only on those days. The jump on Tuesday Nov 17 is the scheduled vote.

Open circles: the last day each contract covers.

Drag across the chart to pick a day.

Inputs

Why these numbers
A. Vote held by Nov 17: 88%
13 of 13 scheduled Knesset Speaker votes were held on the day; the one outgoing Speaker who faced a majority demand, in 2020, blocked the vote and it was held 10 days late, after a Supreme Court order.1,2 This time Ohana set the date himself and said he would respect the majority's will, and 67 members signed the demand.3 A delay of hours on the day still counts. The discount covers disruption and his past defiance of the Court.
B. Someone elected, if the vote is held: 95%
15 of 15 Knesset Speaker votes elected someone on the first ballot.1 Election is by open vote; reported as a simple majority of votes cast.4,5 59 members are committed to Kahana; Ra'am's 8 signed the request without pledging a vote; at most 53 are against.3,6
C. Elected by Nov 30, if not by Nov 17: 70%
In 2020 the Court ruled within 8 days and the vote followed within 10.2 A failed vote can be repeated within days.
D. Elected by Dec 31, if not by Nov 30: 50%
A government cannot be sworn in before a Speaker is elected.4 Eisenkot's deadline is Dec 6, extendable to about Dec 20.7 No vote by Nov 30 would point to a deeper breakdown.
Weak points
  • The Joint List's support is reported to carry a condition; the report is unread.8
  • Ohana controls the agenda and has defied the Supreme Court before, over the State Comptroller vote.
  • The vote threshold rests on secondary sources; the base rates rest mostly on Wikipedia.
  • There is one precedent for an outgoing Speaker facing a majority demand.
  • Within Nov 18-30 and within December, each sitting day carries the same chance of a vote. A postponement of a day, a court ruling, or a government-formation sitting near Eisenkot's Dec 6 or Dec 20 deadline would bunch it instead. A special sitting outside Monday to Wednesday is possible.
Update log
  • 2026-11-12 · Forecast drawn day by day, rising only on sitting days.
  • 2026-11-12 · Model set: A 88%, B 95%, C 70%, D 50%.

Sources

  1. Hebrew Wikipedia. Speaker of the Knesset (secondary).
  2. HCJ 2144/20, Movement for Quality Government v. Speaker of the Knesset (2020).
  3. Haaretz, 2026-11-10. Ohana sets vote on his successor for next Tuesday.
  4. Knesset Rules of Procedure, ch. B1 s. 2.
  5. Israel Democracy Institute. The Knesset Speaker.
  6. Times of Israel. Tibi says Joint List will vote for Kahana.
  7. Basic Law: The Government, ss. 8 and 13.
  8. Israel Hayom. The Joint List's demand in return for supporting replacing the Speaker (Hebrew; not read).
  9. Times of Israel. The plenum's regular sittings are Monday to Wednesday.

Last updated 2026-11-12

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